Release date：2021-12-29Author source：KinghelmViews：440
Today's world is in an era of great change from industrial economy to digital economy. The world is experiencing a broader and deeper scientific and technological revolution. The innovative application of a new generation of information technology is leading a new round of industrial change. In this transformation, fundamental changes are taking place in the industrial operation system in the era of industrial economy. The transformation of resource allocation, innovation and cooperation, production organization and commercial operation is accelerating. The global economy is entering a new stage of system reconstruction, power transformation and paradigm transfer. Enterprises need to re-examine their status, re position their role and re find the development direction. The competition and cooperation relationship between countries, regions, industries and enterprises is becoming more and more complex, and the global economic pattern is undergoing profound changes.
In November 2017, the report of the 19th national congress pointed out that "the main social contradiction in China has been transformed into the contradiction between the people's growing needs for a better life and unbalanced and insufficient development", which clearly shows that China's social economy will pursue more quality and efficient sustainable growth to solve the unbalanced and insufficient problems in the current economic development. In March 2018, the instructions of "developing and expanding new momentum" and "fueling the construction of Digital China" were put forward in the government work report of the two sessions. This shows that the development of digital economy is not only limited to emerging industries, but also will become a national strategy to drive the upgrading of traditional industries. In the G20 digital economy development and cooperation initiative, the definition of digital economy is defined as a series of economic activities with the use of digital knowledge and information as key production factors, modern information network as an important carrier, and the effective use of information and communication technology as an important driving force for efficiency improvement and economic structure optimization. Among them, the core role of digital economy lies in "new kinetic energy", which will drive the comprehensive digital upgrading of industry and society.
The essence of digital new economy is the digitization of economy. The traditional economy is based on entity and the new economy is based on number. The new digital economy has changed the basic structure of the economy, and the change of basic logic will change everything. The fundamental lies in the great change of production mode, that is, digital production, and the implementation of "two everything", that is, the digitization of all businesses and the commercialization of all digital businesses. All real economies should become digital real economies, that is, enterprise digital transformation. Enterprise transformation refers to the overall transformation of the enterprise's long-term business direction, operation mode and its corresponding organization mode and resource allocation mode. It is a process for the enterprise to reshape its competitive advantage, enhance social value and achieve a new enterprise form. It is indeed a wise move for enterprises to take the initiative to foresee the future and implement strategic transformation, but from another perspective, it is also a helpless policy.
Manufacturing is the foundation of building a country, the instrument of rejuvenating the country and the foundation of strengthening the country. Manufacturing industry is the material basis and industrial subject of the national economy and an important symbol of the national scientific and technological level and comprehensive strength; Manufacturing industry is the engine of national economic development, the leading industry to drive and accelerate industrialization with information technology, and the backbone to give play to the late development advantage and implement the leap forward strategy; Manufacturing industry is the basic carrier and mother of science and technology, and the main stage for realizing scientific and technological innovation under the condition of new scientific and technological revolution; Manufacturing industry is the main embodiment of national international competitiveness and the undertaking subject of world industrial transfer and adjustment, which determines the international division status of each country in the pattern of economic globalization. The prosperity of manufacturing industry is the symbol of national strength. Today's manufacturing industry is not only the key link for the transformation of scientific discoveries and technological inventions into real productivity, but also an important basis for providing human beings with material and spiritual wealth needed for life. Good living environment, sufficient energy supply, convenient transportation and communication facilities, rich and colorful printing and publishing, radio, film and television and online media, excellent medical and health care means, reliable national and community security and the ability to resist natural disasters all need the support of the manufacturing industry.
In the coming decades, we are likely to see more Internet like revolutions. Artificial intelligence and biotechnology may be about to revolutionize human society and economy, even human body and mind. Although technologies such as genetic engineering, nanotechnology and artificial intelligence (including robots) can certainly change the world, this does not mean that there will be only one outcome. We can't really predict the future, because science and technology will not bring definite results. In the face of the unknown future, the important thing is not to make efforts to predict, but to have the right mentality and handling wisdom.
It's a simple matter to choose which time point to think about in the future. We might as well focus on 2045. Ray middot, the best technology prophet; Kurzweil wrote in "singularity approaching: when computer intelligence surpasses human beings" (2005) that at some time in the next 40 years, technology will develop rapidly and abnormally, fundamentally changing human survival and tearing apart the context of history. Machines and creatures will become inseparable from each other; The virtual world will be more vivid and charming than the reality; Nanotechnology will promote on-demand manufacturing, end hunger and poverty, and cure all human diseases; You can prevent the body from aging and even reverse it. That will be the most important period for mankind, not only because you will witness the really amazing speed of technological change, but also because technology can bring you the tools of immortality. Ray & middot; Kurzweil believes that the shortest way to realize AgI (general artificial intelligence) is to reverse engineer the brain - scan the brain and generate a set of brain-based circuits. Reproduce these circuits with algorithms or hardware networks, start them in the form of a unified synthetic brain in the computer, and then teach it everything it needs to know. Kurzweil predicts that AgI will appear in 2029, while ASI (super artificial intelligence) will wait until 2045. AgI research has aroused the attention and anxiety of many experts and scholars. We are both worried and full of desire for this intelligent machine that can reach the human level.
We can believe that by then, in addition to the growing Internet, the manufacturing industry will continue to establish a global industrial Internet. Manufacturing enterprises will connect more and more intelligent machines, storage systems and production facilities into the information physical system (CPS) through the industrial Internet platform. According to the 2016-2045 emerging technology trend report of the United States, the most conservative forecast also believes that more than 100 billion devices will be connected to the Internet in 2045. In the future CPS, intelligent subsystems at all levels interact to automatically exchange information, trigger action and execute control, so as to fundamentally improve the industrial processes involving manufacturing, engineering, material use, supply chain and life cycle management, and connect and integrate consumers, manufacturing enterprises, suppliers, products and services more closely. As computers and even robots more closely participate in all aspects of demand analysis, product design, manufacturing and sales, more technologies will become information technology, and the industrial Internet will continue to grow and thrive. The future intelligent manufacturing technology and system will certainly support manufacturing enterprises to create perfect value experience space for us, and manufacturing enterprises will work with us to create greater value for the society. Especially when a major event endangering national security occurs, the future intelligent manufacturing system is like a "transformer", which can quickly respond to environmental changes. Production lines, robots and other intelligent equipment can be flexibly combined on demand to complete specific tasks. AgI and ASI work with us to design emergency response plans. Robots and intelligent equipment will do the work endangering human life safety. There will be no events endangering the lives of medical staff during the new crown in 2020, and there will be no shortage of medical materials. With the support of strong manufacturing industry, human beings and intelligent systems are organically integrated to deal with various challenges in an orderly manner, quickly develop and produce required material products, and perfectly solve all kinds of sudden disasters.
Although the above scenario is a guess of the future, the corresponding requirements for the future level of science and technology and the capacity of the manufacturing industry can also be extracted from the scenario. We will put forward the demand for new infrastructure according to the development assumption of manufacturing industry, and lead the arrangement of new infrastructure construction projects.
New infrastructure construction lays a solid foundation for the digital transformation of manufacturing industry
New infrastructure construction, referred to as new infrastructure, refers to the new infrastructure represented by 5g, artificial intelligence, industrial Internet and Internet of things. The definition was proposed by the central economic work conference in December 2018. In essence, it is the infrastructure of information digitization. Compared with traditional infrastructure, the new infrastructure has richer connotation, wider coverage, better reflects the characteristics of digital economy, and can better promote China's economic transformation and upgrading. In March 2020, the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting and proposed to speed up the construction of new infrastructure such as 5g network and data center. The new infrastructure includes seven areas: 5g, UHV, intercity transportation, charging pile, big data center, artificial intelligence and industrial Internet. It can be found that the new infrastructure focuses on some areas of infrastructure construction, which can well connect the latest theoretical and scientific research achievements to the actual application scenario.
Wu Hao, director of the high technology development department of the national development and Reform Commission, said at a press conference held on April 20 that at present, the new infrastructure mainly includes three aspects: first, information infrastructure, which mainly refers to the infrastructure generated based on the evolution of the new generation of information technology, such as the communication network infrastructure represented by 5g, Internet of things, industrial Internet and satellite Internet, New technology infrastructure represented by artificial intelligence, cloud computing and blockchain, computing infrastructure represented by data center and Intelligent Computing Center, etc. The second is integrated infrastructure, which mainly refers to the integrated infrastructure formed by the deep application of Internet, big data, artificial intelligence and other technologies to support the transformation and upgrading of traditional infrastructure, such as intelligent transportation infrastructure, intelligent energy infrastructure, etc. The third is innovation infrastructure, which mainly refers to the infrastructure with public welfare attributes supporting scientific research, technological development and product development, such as major science and technology infrastructure, science and education infrastructure, industrial technology innovation infrastructure, etc. With the technological revolution and industrial change, the connotation and extension of new infrastructure are not invariable, and will continue to be tracked and studied.
According to the vision for the future, the challenges facing the manufacturing industry, the goal of digital transformation and the problems to be solved urgently, put forward the demand for the construction content of new infrastructure from the perspective of digital transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry, and further put the foothold on the industrial Internet and platform. Based on 5g, big data center, artificial intelligence, industrial Internet and other technologies, the industrial Internet and platform built by the new infrastructure project, as the necessary network environment and infrastructure for the intellectualization of manufacturing industry, closely connect the scattered and isolated enterprise networks, and provide the following service capabilities (but not limited to) support through vertical end-to-end horizontal integration:
L) multi level system operation such as product / subsystem engineering, project system engineering, enterprise system engineering, industrial system engineering and social system engineering.
L) 5C technology architecture such as intelligent connection layer, intelligent analysis layer, intelligent network layer, intelligent cognition layer, intelligent configuration and execution layer.
L. the four types of boundaries of ecosystem member enterprises (vertical boundary (hierarchical barrier), horizontal boundary (internal barrier), external boundary (external barrier) and geographical boundary (cultural barrier)) can be easily "penetrated".
L) quickly respond to changes in market demand, optimize the allocation of manufacturing resources in the ecosystem, and dynamically build a value experience space that satisfies consumers.
L) respond quickly to environmental changes, adjust adaptively, and dynamically reconstruct the space for all members to create value together.
L) quickly reconstruct the intelligent manufacturing system for major emergencies, and provide emergency products and services quickly and quickly on demand.
In addition to providing new capabilities for conventional data, the big data center provides intelligent algorithms for data deep processing to support the intellectualization of the whole life cycle activities of the manufacturing industry.
L) support technological innovation and product innovation, and can carry out industrial mechanism modeling, model validation, verification and evaluation (VV & A), as well as the development of industrial app.
L) improve the efficiency of the whole system through the comprehensive interconnection and global optimization of people, machines and things, and ensure the safety and reliability of the system.
The relationship between digital transformation of manufacturing industry and new infrastructure is complementary. The digital transformation of manufacturing industry puts forward application requirements for new infrastructure, and defines the contents of some new infrastructure construction projects. The information infrastructure such as big data center, intelligent computing system and industrial Internet built by the new infrastructure has consolidated the infrastructure required by the manufacturing industry, provided necessary and intelligent support and services for the digital transformation of manufacturing enterprises, and effectively promoted the construction of the transformation goal system of the manufacturing industry and the realization of the transformation goal, We will vigorously support the foundation for China to move from a manufacturing power to a manufacturing power.
Systematic methodology of digital transformation of manufacturing industry
A large number of records show that many of mankind's great achievements come from reductionism. For 400 years, it has been a methodology for making human theoretical research and scientific experiments. At the beginning of the 20th century, scientists began to notice that reductionism is not suitable for dealing with everything. It seems that some things or systems can only operate and function as a whole. They may indeed have decomposable components (components), but these can not explain the whole. System methodology has become a common practical method to understand the components of the system, the interaction between components and the environment and adapt to the environmental conditions under the premise of considering the whole. System engineering takes the system as the object, starting from the overall concept of the system, studies each component, analyzes the relationship between various factors, and looks for the best scheme of the system to achieve the best overall effect of the system. So far, any successful engineering system is closely related to people, that is, the overall purpose, function, behavior, adaptability, flexibility, diversity and ability of the system are mostly determined by the human team. Perhaps one day, machine intelligence will surpass human beings, and complex systems can be designed and built by intelligent machines themselves, but these technological advances are realized on the basis of human creation for thousands of years, and must also be based on meeting human needs.
The digital transformation of manufacturing industry is a complex system engineering project, which involves many closely coupled elements such as enterprise organization form, production mode, business process, technology / system and environment. The reductionist method is no longer applicable. For the digital transformation of manufacturing industry, it can be analyzed and solved rationally and logically by using system methodology. Of course, the system engineering method to solve complex systems should also be integrated into the process of digital transformation. Manufacturing enterprises should adopt systematic methodology, constantly scan the environment, evaluate the exit situation from the inside and outside, constantly rebalance and restructure, and constantly adapt to themselves, so as to maintain survival and development for a long time.
The digital transformation of manufacturing enterprises requires to improve performance, efficiency, reliability and rapid response ability in the process of uninterrupted operation. The difference between the ideal world solution and the real world proposed by the system methodology is used as the basis for system change. Revise and upgrade one or more current systems instead of replacing them all at once. Therefore, we need to build a simulation running environment. Run the problem-solving process in the simulation operation environment, and connect the model that can represent the system to the simulation system. According to the specific situation, the model may include the mapping from function layer to physical layer. It is emphasized that the simulated environment is not a real environment. If the representation of simulation is not sufficient, the decision-making based on simulation will be invalid. Even if the simulation is appropriate, there may be a risk of continuous reconstruction in response to environmental fluctuations.
Based on the experience accumulated in many years of research and engineering practice, the author summarizes some suggestions for complex problems such as digital transformation of manufacturing industry, as follows:
(1) Thinking mode: we should abandon the traditional linear and deterministic thinking mode and act and think in a complex way. The first thing to do is to understand and understand the complexity of the problem and seriously think about what a complex system (system) is? Who are the participants? What interactions are caused by variability, etc.
(2) Focus: focus on the interaction between individual elements, the impact on the system, and the overall structure, performance and behavior of the complex system, rather than stop to understand the behavior of the complex system as the simple addition of individual factors.
(3) Changing perspective: find out which aspects and factors play a key role in complex systems (Systems) from the perspectives of individual factors and the whole. Simple observation can help us find the relationship network pattern. At the same time, it must be associated with the task, because achieving the goal is the key.
(4) Situational verification: complex systems cannot be predicted or fully mastered. It is necessary to strengthen the flexible use of assumptions. We should try to promote various work in the context, think about different solutions for different scenarios, and pass the context verification (complex system modeling and simulation).
(5) Seeking common ground while reserving differences: establish a multi-disciplinary cross-border team and encourage team members to make bold suggestions. Listening carefully to the different voices of team members is the basic condition for forming complex solutions.
(6) Design method: when a network is composed of thousands of independent and interactive components, coupled with the rapidly changing environment, it is almost impossible to have any reliable method for top-down overall design. It is also a good method to adopt "bottom-up" design for the development of complex systems.
(7) Control speed: the relevance of each problem, symptom, situation and task should be observed. Don't rely on quick judgment and one size fits all methods, because complexity means correlation. If necessary, the advance speed shall be appropriately slowed down to reduce the avoidable negligence caused by hasty decision-making.
(8) Preventive measures: learn from other projects, be good at capturing weak and dangerous information exposed by complex systems, and take remedial measures in time. In daily work, continuously improve safety awareness and accumulate experience in identifying and solving "hazards". Foresee possible dangers and submit them for discussion as soon as possible to avoid losing too much for too little.
Without a strong manufacturing industry, a country's economy will not achieve rapid, healthy and stable development, and it is difficult to generally improve people's living standards. Without a strong manufacturing industry, there would be no today's computers, storage devices, network switches, broadband communication equipment, Internet protocols and industrial software. There would be no Internet infrastructure at all, there would be no today's consumer Internet platform, let alone talk about the "sharing economy". Without a strong manufacturing industry, China cannot move from a manufacturing power to a manufacturing power.
With the rapid development of cloud computing, big data, Internet of things, artificial intelligence and other science and technology, consumer demand is constantly changing, the voice of customization is increasing day by day, and the global market competition of manufacturing industry is becoming increasingly fierce. At the same time, the downward pressure of economy and the increase of production cost and labor cost force manufacturing enterprises to begin to pay attention to digital transformation, hope to use high and new technologies to improve production efficiency, improve product innovation and management ability, and strive to win in the global market competition for a long time. By building information infrastructure based on 5g communication equipment, industrial Internet, big data center and artificial intelligence, the new infrastructure supports the manufacturing industry to build an information physical system (CPS) based on industrial Internet, which has consolidated the infrastructure for the digital transformation of the manufacturing industry.
The digital transformation of manufacturing industry is a complex system engineering project, which involves many influencing factors such as people, organization, management, technology, knowledge and environment, and the influencing factors interact and are closely coupled. The traditional determinism (reductionism) has been difficult to solve the problems of such complex systems. We must stand at the height of the system and consider the uncertainty, nonlinearity and Emergence, etc., to solve the problem as a whole. If the enterprise organization is difficult to adapt to the changes of market and technology, the best digital technology can not fully achieve the goal of transformation.
The digital transformation of manufacturing industry is a long-term strategic action, which requires long-term investment and focuses on the long-term performance improvement of enterprises. In research and practice, we realize that the system view always tends to a long-term perspective, and the only feasible way to find a good scheme is to change gradually step by step. According to the progress of environmental change and transformation, timely adjust the direction and step of exploration, and constantly optimize the overall solution, so as to ensure the realization of the goal of digital transformation of manufacturing industry.
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