TOP4 heavy duty gas turbine field
Heavy duty gas turbine is known as the crown of manufacturing! The reason is that it is one of the most difficult few industrial products in terms of technical complexity, and it is also a breakthrough direction on the road of developing China into a manufacturing power.
Gas turbines are divided into heavy-duty gas turbines, small and medium-sized gas turbines and micro gas turbines. Heavy gas turbines are usually designed for industrial power generation. Small and medium-sized gas turbines are often used for peak shaving, compressors and power systems for aviation or ships. Small and medium-sized gas turbines for land use can be divided into industrial gas turbines and aviation to fuel turbines.
Marine gas turbines in European and American countries are generally aviation to fuel products, while most products of the former Soviet Union are specially developed for ships. Therefore, the size of marine gas turbines in the former Soviet Union is often between European and American marine gas turbines and industrial gas turbines. Therefore, the technology of heavy-duty gas turbine is very different from that of aviation gas turbine, and the two can not be simply converted.
In the first half of 2019, the share of the world's top four gas turbine manufacturers in the gas turbine market for power generation is: Ge accounts for 49.66%, Siemens accounts for 26.13%, Mitsubishi Hitachi accounts for 12.36% and Ansaldo accounts for 6.41%. At present, only these four manufacturers in the world can produce the highest level of H / J gas turbines.
The higher the level of heavy-duty gas turbine, the higher the thermal efficiency. The single cycle thermal efficiency of class E gas turbine is about 34% and the combined cycle is about 53%. The single cycle of class F is about 38%, and the combined cycle is about 57%. The higher efficiency means that the same energy will be able to obtain more power, which is a key index for ships and power plants.
Dongfang Electric has produced more than 70 sets of 3 million MW gas turbines in China. Although the domestic production rate has reached 80%, 20% of its core technology can not be purchased. At the same time, no one has transferred these technologies. Undoubtedly, these core technologies restrict China's progress to a higher level. Since then, Dongfang Electric has independently developed 50MW heavy-duty gas turbine, which has laid an important foundation for developing larger gas turbines in the future.
Before, only the United States, Germany and Japan could independently develop heavy-duty gas turbines. The R & D and manufacturing level of heavy gas turbine often represents the heavy industry level of a country to a great extent. Because the research and development of heavy-duty gas turbine not only attaches importance to performance, but also emphasizes cost performance, which must bring good benefits to users such as power plants.
Fortunately, China has successfully developed a 50 MW heavy-duty gas turbine, realizing the breakthrough of F-class 50 MW heavy-duty gas turbine from scratch. China has gradually improved the construction of the three systems of heavy-duty gas turbines, realizing the trinity of prototype design, equipment manufacturing and test delivery. China has also become the fifth country in the world to fully master the design and manufacturing technology of heavy-duty gas turbines.
Top3 high end capacitance resistance field
China is the largest market for basic electronic components, consuming trillions of resistors and capacitors a year. The best consumer grade capacitors and resistors come from Japan.
Capacitance and resistance are the golden supporting roles of the electronic industry. The capacitance market is more than $20 billion a year, and the resistance is also on the order of $10 billion. The game player in China is Japan's largest player in the field. It occupies more than half of the market share. Especially in Murata and TDK, Taiwan is the second place in China, while Chinese mainland products are mostly middle and low end.
Electronic engineer and general manager of Ruidi Avionics (Beijing) Technology Co., Ltd. once said, "At the military level, domestic resistors and capacitors can meet the demand, but some special customized resistors can also be produced by domestic companies. The gap between us and Japan is in consumer grade and mass-produced components. Domestic enterprises are equivalent to" frying any dish, but they don't guarantee that it tastes the same every time ".
The largest users of capacitors and resistors come from the consumer electronics industry such as mobile phones, computers, household appliances and automobiles. In terms of high-end capacitors and resistors, the most important thing is that the same batch should be consistent as much as possible. Japan does the best in this regard, and there is a large gap between domestic enterprises.
One batch of basic electronic components can produce millions of pieces, which is extremely important for quality control. For example, if a capacitor fails to meet the standard, it may make the mobile phone charge more slowly. Therefore, major mobile phone brands in the world often only purchase the capacitor resistance of large manufacturers.
Japan's MLCC products can reach 1000 floors, and Chinese products can reach about 300 floors. The so-called MLCC (multilayer chip ceramic capacitor) is not only the basic component with the largest consumption in the consumer electronics industry, but also the strength of Japanese enterprises, because Japan's MLCC products can achieve 1000 layers.
Senior electronic engineers in the domestic industry once said: "MLCC is like a thousand layer pastry, but it is much smaller." MLCC is only the size of a grain of rice. It is a ceramic block with electrodes. It is stacked with hundreds of layers of ceramics and hundreds of layers of metal. The principle of capacitance is that two electrodes are sandwiched with an insulating medium to store charge. And the thinner the dielectric layer, the greater the capacitance.
Making MLCC is a bit like spreading Pancakes: ceramic powder slurry is flattened into a coating with a thickness of about 1 micron by a scraper, then a layer of metal powder slurry is applied, and the ceramic medium is pasted with an electrode. After that, a large piece of film is laminated, dried and fired into porcelain.
If the ceramic slurry and electrode slurry are not matched, they will "peel" when drying; Drying too fast will crack, and incomplete drying will also lead to defects; Porcelain should be exposed to special gases; Cooling will not crack. If any link is not in place, the product may not meet the standard in a large proportion. The customer's requirement is one million MLCCs, and only one unqualified MLCC is allowed. Importantly, MLCC is very fragile. For products of the same specification, big brands may have better details and are not easy to be mechanically damaged.
It is worth mentioning that Japanese giant enterprises that always adhere to basic R & d always pay attention to the high-end and focus on making a more profitable high-end market.
According to industry estimates, with the lighter and thinner mobile phones and more frequency bands, the consumption of components with small size and good performance will increase greatly. The MLCC used by iPhone is the most in mobile phones, and the latest iPhone needs thousands of.
The automobile (especially electric vehicle) industry uses more capacitors and resistors, and the quality requirements of components are very harsh. Due to the worse conditions such as impact, temperature, dust and corrosion, there can be no potential safety hazards. The market of automotive components is large and the technical threshold is very high. In the future, the market may continue to be controlled by Japanese giant companies.
According to the Nikkei Asia review, the world's electronic device manufacturers compete fiercely in the supply of 5g smart phones. Among them, Japanese manufacturers with solid market share in 4G products hope to maintain their leading edge over Chinese and Korean competitors through the miniaturization technology of MLCC.
"Considering the current chip installation technology, its size should be as small as possible," said Hengnan Murata, chairman of Murata production Institute in Japan The company's new multilayer ceramic capacitor has begun mass production and has become a key component of smart phones.
In smart phones, the important role of MLCC is to store and discharge to maintain a stable current in the circuit. Murata's new equipment size is only 0.25mm x 0.125mm, which is the smallest MLCC in the world! But its volume is only one fifth of that of similar products, but its power storage capacity has reached an amazing ten times!
MLCC is placed on the whole circuit board of the smartphone. According to statistics, about 800 MLCCs are used in high-end phones, which is 20% higher in 5g mobile phones.
Akira minamikawa, a British technology research expert and head of Japanese electronics research at omdia, once said that due to its advanced miniaturization technology, Japanese MLCC manufacturers have a solid advantage over foreign competitors in the competition. "Chinese and Korean competitors still can't" copy "Japan's MLCC," he said.
In fact, 5g smartphones need more parts with more stringent specifications than 4G models, so as to process higher speed and greater throughput. Because space is so valuable, 5g devices rely heavily on technologies that can shrink parts and enhance their functionality.
The component with the most space occupied by the mobile phone is the battery. 5g mobile phones consume more power and can process more data faster. Due to the limitation of design volume, 5g mobile phones need larger capacity and smaller battery.
Amperex technology, a subsidiary of TDK in Hong Kong, China, once occupied 30% of the global smartphone lithium-ion battery market. TDK has been developing laminated lithium-ion batteries to improve its miniaturization technology.
Mitsutaka Fujita, a researcher at techno systems research in Tokyo, Japan, once said that in addition to traditional customers such as apple and Samsung Electronics, ATL also provides more and more services to medium-sized manufacturers in China and other regions. He predicted that ATL's market share will continue to grow this year.
Japan aviation electronics industry, a subsidiary of NEC in Japan, is studying a new technology for manufacturing noise free connectors and using its technology developed for aerospace applications to occupy an advantage in the 5g smartphone component market. In fact, many Japanese electronic component manufacturers can develop materials and manufacture advanced equipment by themselves, and have core technologies that cannot be emulated, so that competitors in the world can not repeat their products.
Nanchuan Ming once said: "the competitors of China and South Korea will narrow the gap with Japanese competitors in the next decade, but because Japanese manufacturers will also develop their technology, they will not be able to catch up easily."
In addition to Japanese manufacturers occupying a certain position in key parts of smart phones, Samsung and other Korean companies in South Korea control 90% of the global organic LED display market. These displays are used in more and more 5g mobile phones because they are lighter and thinner than LCD. At present, BOE Technology Group in China has also made efforts to obtain share from Korean competitors.
It is worth mentioning that many American companies are leaders in smart phone chip technology. Qualcomm plans to launch 5g compatible processors in 2021, which experts say will bring faster network standards to low-cost phones. This will be Qualcomm's latest chipset product, and Qualcomm is steadily expanding its 5g compatible product portfolio.
Kioxia in Japan is the only Japanese memory chip manufacturer in the world that still stands. At the same time, the company is preparing for mass production of next-generation memory and profits from the expected growth in demand for high-capacity products.
To sum up, high-end MLCC is controlled by overseas markets. In terms of global market share, Japanese manufacturers occupy a very obvious leading advantage. Especially among the top ten MLCC manufacturers in the world, Japanese manufacturers account for about 50% of the global market sales. Moreover, Japanese manufacturers lead other manufacturers in the world in high-end products and core raw material ceramic powder technology, and their capacity scale is also larger than that in other regions. They have a greater voice in the industry and have obvious technical advantages.
Murata production Institute of Japan is the absolute leader in this industry. Its market share has remained the first in the industry for many years. The important thing is that its product specifications and capacitance range are very complete, and its technology is leading. As early as 2017, its global market share reached 25.8%.
Samsung motor, a MLCC manufacturer in Korea, ranks second in the industry, with a market share of 21% in 2017. China's Taiwan giants and Huaxin also occupy an important market position. The market share of the giant market ranks third in the world. The market share of mainland manufacturer Fenghua high tech in 2017 was only 2.7%.
Top2 CNC machine tool field
Since 2003, China has been the largest consumer and importer of CNC machine tools in the world. However, most domestic CNC machine tools are medium and low-end products, and 90% of high-end CNC machine tools depend on imports. Among them, Japan is the main source of imports, accounting for about one third.
The so-called NC machine tool refers to the automatic machine tool equipped with program control system, which can make the machine tool process parts under the programmed system control. Compared with traditional machine tools, it has the advantages of high machining accuracy, strong adaptability to machining objects and high production efficiency, especially in aerospace, shipbuilding, automobile, railway construction, national defense and military industry.
CNC machine tool industry belongs to the trinity of capital intensive, labor-intensive and knowledge intensive industries. China used to be the country with the largest output of machine tools and the highest purchase volume in the world, but the sales of machine tools are not high, especially in the field of high-end machine tools. China mainly imports machine tools from the United States, Japan, Germany and other countries.
According to the in-depth market evaluation of China's high-end CNC machine tool industry and the investment feasibility consulting report 2020-2024 released by xinsijie Industrial Research Center, the localization rate of China's high-end CNC machine tools in 2018 was about 7%, which was still in a small state. In terms of demand, the demand for high-end CNC machine tools in China reached about 10% in 2013 and about 20% in 2018. Compared with the localization rate of 7%, the gap is very large. In 2018, the market scale of China's high-end CNC machine tools was 61.74 billion yuan.
Because the middle and low-end CNC machine tool product market is the area where domestic enterprises compete intensively, the degree of product homogenization is very high and has entered the situation of complete competition. There is a significant gap between our CNC industry and developed capitalist countries in terms of technical level and maturity. From the perspective of industrial maturity, the gap between China's high-end CNC machine tools and foreign countries is about 15-20 years, which is equivalent to the level of developed countries at the end of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century. Moreover, China has always been at the bottom of the manufacturing industry, and the industrialization level of CNC machine tools needs to be improved.
Xinsijie industry researcher believes that the goal of 2020 is to achieve 1000 domestic high-end CNC systems in that year. The made in China 2025 released by the state also focuses on raising the NC rate of key processes in China from the current 33% to 64% by 2025. China's CNC machine tool market demand is very broad, policy support is very strong, it is important to have very good development potential, import substitution space is also large, but it takes time.
In terms of CNC machine tools, Japan's export volume has always ranked first in the world. Since the first CNC machine tool was developed in 1958, the Japanese government has long encouraged scientific research institutions and enterprises to vigorously develop CNC machine tools through planning and regulations, and provided very sufficient research funds. It is worth mentioning that Japan continues to learn from Germany in machine tool parts and from the United States in the development and research of NC technology and NC system. Finally, Japan has achieved great results. Since 1978, the output and export volume of Japanese CNC machine tools have always ranked first in the world.
The United States is the inventor of CNC machine tools. The United States has strong market competitiveness in the host design, manufacturing and CNC system of CNC machine tools. Although the machine tool technology of the United States is still at the world-class level, its output ranks third in the world. At the same time, it is also a major importer of CNC machine tools in the world.
The reason is that the import demand of NC machine tools in the United States is still large. As early as 2012, the import demand of NC machine tools has always exceeded that of metal processing machine tools. In 2013, the equipment investment driven by the backflow of manufacturing industry began to slow down, and the gap of machine tools, especially CNC machine tools, began to narrow.
Germany has developed the first CNC machine tool since 1956. Since then, German CNC machine tools have begun to develop steadily. On the basis of traditional design and manufacturing technology and advanced technology, German CNC machine tools continue to adopt advanced electronic information technology and innovate and develop on the basis of superposition of scientific research.
Germany attaches great importance to the research and development of various supporting components and CNC systems. Since the 1960s, Siemens in Germany has been involved in CNC systems. At present, German companies and farnaco in Japan jointly occupy 80% of the high-end CNC system market. It is worth mentioning that the main engine accessories of German CNC machine tools, mechanical, electrical, hydraulic, pneumatic, optical, cutting tools, measurement, CNC system and other functional components rank among the world's advanced levels in terms of quality and performance. Since 2013, the output value of German machine tool industry has increased by 4%, and the total output value once reached the highest record of 11.15 billion euros, especially 18.9% in the world.
In recent years, China has made amazing achievements in both economic development and scientific and technological level. China is the largest developing country. In the face of great achievements, we should also see shortcomings and not belittle ourselves. At the same time, we should work hard to catch up and finally realize the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.
[敏感词] industrial software field
China's industrial production capacity and industrial export scale have long led the world. In particular, the added value of China's manufacturing industry accounts for more than 28% of the world market share. It is worth mentioning that among all industrial categories and sub categories (41 industrial categories, 191 medium categories and 525 sub categories) designated by the United Nations, China has the most complete industrial categories, and many Chinese enterprises are called heavyweight players. However, if China's industrial enterprises want to really become bigger and stronger, there is still an unavoidable key weakness - industrial software.
At present, the largest industrial software enterprise in China belongs to Huawei Technology. However, even though Huawei is very powerful, it still needs EDA (Electronic Design Automation) software tools provided by three software companies in the United States, Synopsys, cadence and mentor, when designing products. It is worth mentioning that the chip design of American software enterprises is extremely complex. There are billions of transistors in the chip. Therefore, the extreme design accuracy of their EDA tools is difficult to replace.
The domestic market is in the core industrial software field: CAD R & D and design software market, which is occupied by France Dassault, Germany Siemens, American PTC and American Autodesk, and domestic digital generous and Zhongwang software account for less than 10%. In the field of CAE simulation software market, American ANSYS, American Altair, American MSc and other companies occupy almost all market shares. Even in the field of production management industrial software with low technical content, the high-end market is monopolized by SAP in Germany and oracel in the United States by more than 90%.
Industrial software is by no means a simple it software, nor can ordinary Internet companies get involved in it. For example, the world's largest software company is neither Microsoft nor sap (the world's leading software company in Germany), but Lockheed & middot of the United States, the world's largest arms dealer; Martin company.
Let's look at the three major industries, such as manufacturing: AutoCAD, proie, UG, Solidworks, construction: AutoCAD, Revit, 3dsmax, entertainment media: 3dsmax, Maya and Autodesk smoke. It is found that none of the software often used in the above is developed by us, and they all come from foreign software enterprises.
Another example is AutoCAD, the software used by almost all walks of life in China. It is the product of Autodesk (the world's leading design software and digital content creation company) in the United States. It monopolizes almost all CAD tools in China. It is worth mentioning that no one uses AutoCAD in Russia, because the Russians use nanocad, which is a CAD tool developed by Russia.
In the field of industrial software, the lack of core is no less than the lack of chip technology. However, China's management software and embedded development are doing well. In fact, if you want to master the core technology of industrial software, you need to realize modeling technology, virtual simulation and mathematical operation, which completely depend on mathematical algorithms. These algorithms need long-time dedicated research and high-end talents.
The largest industrial software company in Germany is still not Siemens, nor Volkswagen, nor ThyssenKrupp, but SAP se (SAP). Although it is only a software company, it is a company leading the national strategy of German industry 4.0. Although it only ranks 427 among the world's top 500 in 2019, what's powerful about Germany is that 80% of the world's top 500 companies are its customers.
The famous sap (system applications and products) software belongs to this company. It is the pioneer of ERP (enterprise wide resource planning) solution and the No. 1 ERP software in the world. It can be said that almost every minute, SAP software runs in the computer rooms of more than 172000 enterprises in more than 120 countries around the world. Some people say that once sap is out of supply, a third of chip enterprises will die ugly.
The development of industrial software in Japan is relatively poor. Japan, the world's third-largest economy, is second only to the United States in software sales, because Japan's local industrial software has no popular brand. Japanese enterprises are more willing to work hard on hardware in the manufacturing industry than to spend too much energy on software research and development. The Japanese prefer outsourcing software development. The global software outsourcing market has reached US $100 billion, and Japan accounts for one tenth.
It can be said that the core technology of manufacturing industry is actually industrial software, including logic programming, data establishment and analysis, device driver, program change, sensor application, etc., all of which need to rely on software technology.
In order to maintain their traditional monopoly position, Siemens of Germany, ge of the United States and Schneider of France madly acquired industrial software companies in the world. For example, in November 2016, German Siemens acquired mentor, one of the world's three largest electronic design automation software EDA, for us $4.5 billion.
At present, important industrial software entering China's industrial field, including R & D CAD, CAE, cam and CAPP, information management ERP, CRM and HRM, and production control MES, PCs and PLC, account for nearly 40%. In addition, 60% of embedded software (special software embedded in specific equipment) is due to the huge demand of industrial enterprises for industrial intelligent terminals, industrial sensors and industrial automation equipment. Today, it can be said that the production of almost every industrial product and the online operation of every industrial equipment are first from the industrial software, and then there are the final entity products and operation entities.
The biggest bottleneck of China's industrial development is industrial software, and the development level and bottleneck of industrial software enterprises will become restrictive factors for downstream enterprises. For example, China's nuclear power technology has reached world-class strength, especially the domestic Hualong nuclear power system has gone to the world. But according to insiders, The software of nuclear power system is NX software of Siemens in Germany (the product engineering solutions provided by Siemens play an important role in NX software design model and production and manufacturing process management. For example, in the aerospace industry, STK analysis software developed by American analytical graphics has been used for a long time. STK can support the whole process of aerospace missions, including design, test, launch, operation and mission application. At present, STK is the most popular The higher version is 11.0. Therefore, industrial software is often referred to as the "short board among the short boards" of Chinese industrial enterprises, which needs to catch up in this field.
In the field of CAD R & D and design, Dassault of France, Siemens of Germany, PTC of the United States and Autodesk of the United States have a market share of more than 90% in the Chinese market, while domestic digital Dafang, Zhongwang software and Shanda Huatian have a market share of less than 10%, and Shenzhou Aerospace and Jinhang digital only have a certain market share in the aerospace field.
In the field of CAE simulation software, American companies ANSYS, Altair and NASTRAN occupy more than 95% of the market share. However, at present, domestic software enterprises are starting to make great efforts in the fields of automobile R & D and architectural CAD.
In the field of production management, sap in Germany and oracel in the United States account for more than 90% of the high-end market, and UFIDA and Kingdee in China only account for about 80% of the medium and low-end market.
It is worth mentioning that the revenue level of sap in Germany is up to 25 billion euros, which has exceeded the UFIDA network of domestic peers by more than 15 times. In the field of production control, Siemens, Schneider, GE and Rockwell also have obvious advantages. The domestic Nari, Baoxin and Yingke have certain competitiveness because they have accumulated for many years in the electric power, iron and steel metallurgy and petrochemical industries.
EDA is considered to be the cutting-edge field of industrial software. One of the main constraints of the upgrading of our integrated circuit chip technology is EDA. It is worth mentioning that cadence, Synopsys and mentor, three American software companies, account for more than 70% of the global EDA industry revenue.
EDA is mainly used for chip design, and the design cost continues to increase. In each iteration of technical accuracy, 30% - 50% of the software code needs to be rewritten. The bottleneck formed by the software is its key limiting factor.
Domestic software enterprises are good at management software (such as office software and fiscal and taxation software), while engineering software is obviously weak. At present, 80% of domestic planning software, 50% of production software and 95% of service software still can not be controlled independently.
What is industrial software? It refers to the software applied in the industrial field, including system, application, middleware, embedded, etc. Generally speaking, industrial software is divided into programming language, system software, application software and middleware between the two. The system software provides the most basic functions for computer use, but it is not specific to a specific application field. The application software is just the opposite. Different application software provides different functions according to users and service fields.
Industrial application software includes three categories:
1. Tools and management software supporting product R & D and innovation, that is, the field of digital software for product innovation.
Including: 1) CAD (computer aided design, including MCAD and ECAD, and computer aided mechanical and electrical design); 2) CAE (Engineering Simulation); 3) Cam (computer aided manufacturing, main index control programming software); 4) CAPP (Computer Aided Process Planning); 5) EDA (Electronic Design Automation); 6) Digital manufacturing; 7) PDM / PLM (product data management / Product Lifecycle Management),
And other special software, such as tolerance analysis, software code management (case / ALM), MRO (overhaul and maintenance management), 3D browser, experimental data management, design cost management, design quality management, 3D model inspection, manufacturability analysis, etc.
2. Various management software fields supporting business operation (management software)
Including ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning), MES (Manufacturing Execution System), CRM (Customer Relationship Management), SCM (Supply Chain Management), SRM (Supplier Relationship Management), EAM (Enterprise Asset Management), HCM (human asset management), Bi (business intelligence analysis), APS (advanced production scheduling), QMS (quality management system), PM (Project Management), EMS (energy management) MDM (Master Data Management), LIMS (Laboratory Management), BPM (Business Process Management), collaborative office and enterprise portal, etc. ERP is developed from MRP (material requirement planning) and MRPII (Manufacturing Resource Planning).
3. Industrial control software field supporting control, data acquisition and safe operation of equipment and automatic production line.
Including APC (advanced process control)
, DCS (distributed control system), PLC (programmable logic control), SCADA (data acquisition and monitoring system), configuration software, DNC / MDC (distributed numerical control and machine data acquisition), industrial network security software, etc. Among them, the control software and hardware equipment of DCS, PLC and SCADA are closely integrated, which is the basis of the application of industrial Internet of things.
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