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Market status, industrial chain analysis and technology development trend of missile equipment industry

Release date:2021-12-29Author source:KinghelmViews:386

1. Missile system overview

The definition of missile is a weapon that relies on its own power device to promote, guides and controls its flight trajectory by the guidance system, guides the warhead and destroys the target. It is a precision guided weapon with the characteristics of long range, high speed, high precision and great power. There are many classification methods for missiles. The most commonly used classification method is to classify missiles according to their aerodynamic shape and flight trajectory. They can be divided into two categories: ballistic missiles and winged missiles. Under each category, they can be subdivided into many sub categories, as shown in Figure 17.

Among them, ballistic missile is a missile that flies along the preset trajectory and throws the warhead to the predetermined target. According to the operational nature, ballistic missiles can be divided into strategic ballistic missiles and tactical ballistic missiles. Strategic ballistic missiles are generally medium-range, long-range and intercontinental ballistic missiles. Tactical ballistic missiles are generally short-range ballistic missiles. The development trend of ballistic missiles in the future is mainly to improve penetration capability, improve hit accuracy, expand global strike capability and mobile launch capability.

Winged missile is a kind of automatic control aircraft with rocket engine or air breathing engine as power, and the normal force required for maneuvering flight depends on the aerodynamic force of lifting parts. According to the target type and position, winged missile can be divided into surface to air missile, air to air missile, surface to surface missile, air to surface missile, anti-ship missile and anti tank missile. It is characterized by high guidance accuracy, strong maneuverability, complex system composition and structure. The development direction of winged missile in the future includes expansion autonomy, intelligence, modularization and standardization, flight airspace expansion, etc.

Although there are many kinds of missiles, almost all kinds of missiles are composed of warhead, power system, guidance system and missile body structure, as shown in Figure 18. See Table 9 for the functions and classification of specific parts.

Due to the complex composition of the missile, the general design and development process is long, mainly including scientific research and trial production. In order to solve the key problems in the trial production and develop a new advanced missile weapon system, in addition to a lot of in-depth scientific research, it is also necessary to carry out repeated iterations in the development process (the specific process is shown in Figure 19). Therefore, the overall cycle from design to equipment of the missile is generally long, The whole process generally takes about 5-15 years.

The performance index of the missile itself mainly includes three aspects. The flight performance includes range, flight speed, altitude and mobility; In terms of service performance, the launch preparation time and reliability are mainly considered; The economic requirements mainly involve the economic requirements for the production and use of missile weapons.

2. Market status of missile equipment industry

2.1 market scale of complete missile equipment

At present, the international political and security situation is complex and changeable, uncertainties have increased significantly, and the international security situation is facing new challenges. As global arms transfer is closely related to political economy, regional conflicts, international counter-terrorism and other forms, the international military trade market as a whole presents an upward development trend, According to the new version of the global military trade report released by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) in 2019, since the beginning of the 21st century, the export volume of the world's major arms exporting countries has maintained growth. In 2015-2019, the global arms trading volume increased by 5.48% compared with the previous cycle (2010-2014) and 20% compared with 2005-2009.

Missile weapons have been an important part of the international military trade market because of their outstanding characteristics different from general offensive weapons, including high power, long range and high precision. At the same time, the trade of missile weapons and equipment is affected and restricted by a variety of international environmental factors, including international military trade policies and regulations, international political trends, national security environment and military strategy, the relationship between importing and exporting countries, as well as the quality and price of weapons. It can be seen that there are certain fluctuations in the current global missile weapon equipment transactions, and the annual transaction order volume is basically between 60-100. Since the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008, the missile trading volume has declined. Then, affected by the situation in the Middle East, the import scale of missile weapons in India, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates has increased rapidly, and the global missile weapons trading volume has also begun to rise, reaching its peak in 2013-2014. Although the global missile trading heat has cooled down again, since trump was elected US president, the major turning points in US domestic and foreign affairs, the new variables brought about by Britain's brexit, the continuous turmoil of the situation in Syria, the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the conflict between Saudi allied forces and Hussein armed forces in Yemen, the refugee crisis and the accelerated spread of religious conflict have occurred, At the same time, the global spread of COVID-19 intensified the above international uncertainties in 2020. We judged that the future global military trade market transactions will be further enhanced and consolidated, and the global missile trading market will be expected to have a resumption of growth again.

From the distribution of orders for various types of missile weapons and equipment in the world from 2008 to 2017 (see Figure 23), anti tank missiles generally have the characteristics of low price and flexible operation, with the highest transaction volume, accounting for 65% of the total orders for missile weapons and equipment. With the deterioration of local conflicts in the Middle East and so on, In the future, anti tank missiles are expected to maintain the highest proportion of missile weapons and equipment transactions

According to the prediction of missiles (including guided weapons) in 2018 World mission briefing released by Teal group, the global missile output is expected to reach 317900 in 2019-2027, and the output value can reach more than 130 billion US dollars. See table 10 and table 11 for details.

As for China's missile market, the demand mainly comes from national defense demand and military trade export demand. The current situation is as follows:

① Defense needs

In terms of national defense demand, under the background of stable and healthy growth of China's military expenditure, China's weapons and equipment have made some progress. However, according to the disclosure in China's national defense in the new era released in July 2019, China's mechanization construction task has not been completed, the information level needs to be improved urgently, and military security faces the risk of technical surprise and widening the technical generation gap, There is still a big gap between the military modernization level and the national security needs, and between the military modernization level and the world advanced military level. The proportion of equipment cost in the composition of military expenditure has increased year by year, indicating that China is constantly increasing its efforts to promote the modernization of national defense and the army and deepen the reform of national defense and the army. Under the background of Comprehensively Strengthening military training and preparation and increasing practical exercises, the demand for missiles, as an indispensable consumable weapon and equipment of the modern army, is expected to maintain a stable and sustained growth with the steady growth of China's equipment cost. This can also be verified by the data disclosed by Aerospace Science and industry group, one of the equipment R & D and manufacturing entities of China's missile weapon system. After 2016, the growth rate of aerospace defense and other business revenue of Aerospace Science and industry group has exceeded the growth rate of China's military expenditure and the growth rate of equipment expenses in military expenditure.

At the same time, under the background that China's epidemic situation has achieved phased victory, some politicians in the United States and a few other countries, or out of domestic political needs, try to divert attention and shirk responsibility, or out of ideological prejudice and other factors, politicize and stigmatize the epidemic situation, create public opinion and discredit China, and Sino US relations continue to be tense, China's demand for weapons and equipment represented by missile weapons and equipment is also expected to grow.

To sum up, we judge that a large amount of military expenditure has been invested in the development of China's weapons and equipment, the quality of domestic equipment has been significantly improved, and the military trade has achieved a surplus. The key models have finally been gradually finalized in recent years, and the next decade is expected to be a harvest period for the construction of weapons and equipment; At the same time, with the current military increasing the intensity of actual combat exercises, the demand for missile weapons, as a consumable weapon, will also grow rapidly; In addition, under the background of tense Sino US relations, China's demand for missile equipment, the representative of modern weapons and equipment, may continue to grow.

② Military trade export

According to the international situation report of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (2020), the global situation and world pattern in 2020 will show eight trends: the global economy has entered the era of ultra-low interest rates, the interest game in global governance is becoming increasingly fierce, regional and bilateral cooperation is advancing rapidly, the East-West separation trend in the field of international strategy and security is intensifying Countries have become more competitive in cyberspace, science and technology competition has become more intense, the risk of nuclear proliferation has increased, and extremist acts have shown an international trend. In the context of novel coronavirus pneumonia, the US maintains sanctions against Iran and Venezuela during the epidemic period, all of which indicate that the epidemic has not played a significant role in easing the geopolitical conflicts. Although the promotion of the international military trade market may be affected by some epidemic, it has been in the period of several major epidemics since twentieth Century. Novel coronavirus pneumonia is still growing in the international military market. (see chart 25), we judge that the negative impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic on international military trade is limited. Meanwhile, the world's instability and uncertainties will increase the international military trade. Overall, we expect that the stable growth trend of global military trade since the 20th century is expected to continue in the future, and the growth rate of global military trade may even increase rapidly.

In conclusion, we believe that China's market demand for missile weapons and equipment is expected to maintain stable and rapid growth in both domestic demand and export.

2.2 market conditions of missile subsystems

Due to the wide variety and quantity of components and parts constituting the whole missile, its R & D and production belong to system engineering. The weapon system generally belonging to system engineering can be divided into six stages from R & D, production to application, namely, feasibility demonstration, scheme design, engineering development, production finalization, use and support, decommissioning and destruction. The specific work of each stage is shown in Table 12.

As for missile equipment, the first five stages in the missile life cycle are the stages that need to be invested. Among them, the cost invested in feasibility demonstration, scheme design and engineering development belongs to R & D cost, while the cost invested in production finalization belongs to production cost, and the cost invested in use and support belongs to later operation and maintenance cost. It can be seen from the composition of the input cost of each stage in the life cycle of the weapon system (see Figure 26) that the input cost of the missile weapon system in the production finalization stage and use and maintenance stage accounts for a large proportion (about 80%), while the total investment proportion in the demonstration stage, scheme stage and engineering development stage (collectively referred to as the R & D stage) is small (about 20%), It shows that the R & D cost of the whole missile only accounts for about 20%, while the production cost and operation and maintenance cost can account for 80%.

In the production finalization stage, as described in Section 2.1, the complete missile is mainly composed of four parts, namely warhead, power system, guidance (and control) system and missile structure. The above four subsystems account for the overall cost of the missile, as shown in Figure 27. It can be seen that the proportion of ballistic missile guidance system, power system, warhead and others (including missile structure) is relatively close; Among winged missiles, especially air-to-air target missiles, the cost of guidance and control system is significantly more prominent than that of other subsystems, indicating that with the continuous improvement of the performance (especially mobility) of military aircraft such as fighter and UAV, the performance requirements of guidance system that determines the missile's precision strike capability are improved, The improvement of performance directly drives the cost proportion of guidance and control subsystem to increase. We expect that the cost proportion of guidance and control subsystem may continue to remain high in the future.

3. Analysis of missile equipment industry chain

The upstream of the industrial chain of missile R & D and production is mainly engineering development, which specifically involves the overall demonstration, design (including overall missile design and subsystem design), simulation test and test of missiles. It is mainly implemented by relevant enterprises and institutions affiliated to the military industry group, such as aviation industry, Aerospace Science and technology, aerospace science and industry and ordnance industry. At the same time, some scientific research institutes Factories and private enterprises participate in the customized development, production and experiment of samples. Based on figure 26, it can be seen that the upstream of the missile manufacturing industry chain accounts for about 20% of the overall market scale of the missile industry.

The middle reaches of the industrial chain mainly focus on mass production after missile development and finalization. It can subdivide the industrial chain according to component supporting processing and production, subsystem (component) integration and final assembly integration. Among them, the supporting processing and production of components and parts and subsystems (components) are participated by enterprises, institutions and private enterprises affiliated to the military industry group such as aviation industry, aerospace science and technology, aerospace science and industry, ordnance industry and CETC, and the general assembly integration is mainly participated by the military industry group or the general assembly plant affiliated to the military. As can be seen from figure 26, this part accounts for about 60% of the overall market scale of the missile industry.

The downstream of the industrial chain is mainly composed of equipment support, maintenance and life extension after missile delivery to the army, which is mainly participated by enterprises and institutions affiliated to military central enterprises and some private supporting enterprises. As can be seen from figure 26, this part accounts for about 20% of the overall market scale of the missile industry.

The specific missile development industry chain and listed companies related to each part can be shown in Figure 28.

4. Development trend of missile equipment technology

As an important part of the modern information war, the technical development trend of the complete missile is mainly determined by the improvement direction of the operational index requirements of the missile, and can be decomposed and established on the technical development trend of the supporting processing and production of various components and components.

4.1 overall technology development trend

From the perspective of overall missile technology, according to the classification in Figure 17, it can be divided into ballistic missile (Strategic Missile) technology development trend and winged missile (Tactical Missile) technology development trend.

First of all, in terms of ballistic missiles, since the Gulf War, the significant effects of ballistic missiles in the war have prompted countries all over the world to attach great importance to and compete to develop ballistic missile manufacturing and penetration technology. Referring to the development of foreign ballistic missiles, the technical development trend of ballistic missiles can be summarized as follows:

(1) In terms of overall design, the missile design is more modular and universal. Improving the missile can improve the space and meet more operational requirements;

(2) In terms of guidance, compound guidance method is adopted to continue to improve the guidance accuracy of ballistic missile;

(3) Carry out life extension work to continuously extend the service life of missiles;

(4) Enhance the penetration capability of the missile through the use of stealth, fast burning engine, mobile orbit change and other technologies;

(5) Submarine launched ballistic missile will become the main force of strategic missile in the future because of its good concealment, strong mobility and high survival probability.

In terms of winged missiles, due to many types of missiles and great differences in the functions and target characteristics of various missiles, they need to be discussed by classification. With reference to the technical development trend of overseas winged missiles and the research results of relevant domestic academic literature, the specific technical development trend of various winged missiles is as follows:

(1) In terms of anti tank missile, the main technical development direction is to develop advanced anti tank missile guidance technology; Apply advanced warheads to improve damage and penetration capability; Research new engine propulsion technology; Capable of fighting against multiple targets; Realize soft launch to improve battlefield survivability.

(2) In terms of surface to air missiles, the main technical development direction is to have the ability of anti-jamming, anti deception and high damage in complex battlefield environment; Using advanced manufacturing technology to replace traditional manufacturing means to simplify the production process, reduce the use of parts, shorten the supply chain and development cycle, and speed up the production of parts and system integration.

(3) In the aspect of air-to-air missile, the main technical development direction is the transition from serial design to integrated design technology, so as to better improve the flight performance of air-to-air missile; From single-mode guidance to multi-mode guidance to improve the detection ability and anti-jamming ability of the missile; From stand-alone guidance to network guidance, realize fast and accurate attack on the target; From single pneumatic control to heterogeneous multi actuator control, the control response speed and accuracy are improved; Improve engine performance; From independent guidance fuze to guidance fuze integration.

(4) In terms of air to surface missiles, advanced technologies are adopted to further increase the range of air to surface missiles; Modular design is adopted to improve the universality and adaptability of air to ground missile and reduce the cost; Multimode recombination and addition of EW and defense loads to enhance guidance accuracy and anti-jamming capability; Have networking capability to improve the cooperative combat capability of air to ground missiles; We will continue to focus on developing hypersonic missile technology with better performance.

(1) In terms of anti-ship missiles, cruise missiles are the main type, and the demand for range and flight speed is increasing. The stealth ability and anti-jamming ability are further enhanced, the multi mission execution ability is further enhanced, and the degree of serialization, generalization and miniaturization is further strengthened; The intelligent level of anti-ship missiles has been gradually improved; The ability of anti-ship missile cluster operation has been gradually enhanced; The combat information support capability of anti-ship missiles has been continuously improved; At the same time, we will vigorously develop hypersonic missile technology.

4.2 development trend of key subsystem Technology

Aiming at the overall technical development trend of several missile technologies, this section decomposes some components and components with strong correlation with the capital market, including the technical development trend of advanced material manufacturing and related processing technology related to the missile structure subsystem, guidance and control system and related photoelectric components, power system and missile borne special power supply in other systems.

4.2.1 missile structure subsystem (advanced material manufacturing and processing)

The main function of the missile body structure is to integrate all parts of the missile into a whole and make the missile form a good aerodynamic shape, including the body, wing (for winged missile) and rudder. Traditional projectile structures generally use materials with small specific gravity and high strength. Traditional materials include aluminum alloy, magnesium alloy, titanium alloy, composite materials and so on.

At present, as described in section 2.4.1, with the improvement of the current national defense requirements for missile speed, mobility, range, survivability and anti-interference ability, the requirements are decomposed into missile structure subsystems, which can be attributed to the requirements for materials with higher temperature resistance, higher strength and good microwave absorption characteristics, The synthesis and processing technology related to this material are the key core technologies in the development of missile structure subsystem. The specific development trends of this kind of technology are as follows:

① Advanced composites

Advanced composite materials (ACM) plays an important role in the development of aerospace. Its main characteristics are light weight, high stiffness, high strength, flexible design and so on. As the main load-bearing and secondary load-bearing structures, ACM structures have been successfully applied to a variety of aircraft, which is of great significance to the lightweight of aircraft. It is estimated that the percentage of composite materials in the structure and mass of missiles in the 21st century is 79% and 60%. ACM mainly includes resin matrix composites, metal matrix composites and ceramic matrix composites. In terms of resin matrix composites, as the most widely used composites in missile structures, its density is 1 / 5 of steel and 1 / 2 of aluminum.

For example, the instrument cabin of American "trident-1" missile adopts epoxy resin / carbon fiber structure, and more than 100 parts adopt graphene fiber composites, which is 30% lighter than aluminum alloy and has remarkable weight reduction effect. After years of development, China's resin matrix composites have basically realized localization, which can meet the needs of aviation industry

The development needs of aerospace, such as Shenzhou series and Fengyun satellite series, all use self-developed epoxy resin matrix composites, which reduces the overall mass and launch cost. However, the current technology of some resin matrix composites is limited to laboratory synthesis and is far from reaching the stage of mass production.

Metal matrix composites can be divided into aluminum matrix, titanium matrix, copper matrix, magnesium matrix and other metal matrix composites. Among them, three kinds of light metal matrix composites such as aluminum matrix, titanium matrix and magnesium matrix have broad application prospects in the field of aerospace because of their characteristics of low density, high specific strength, radiation resistance, good wear resistance and vibration reduction. Aluminum matrix composites can be used to manufacture missile seeker components, propeller components, missile body structure components and other main components to reduce the cost; Magnesium matrix composites have attracted more and more attention because of their unique properties such as dimensional stability. For example, SiCp / Mg composites can be used in missile tail and internal reinforced cylinder, and B4Cp / Mg Li composites can be used in spacecraft antenna components; As an ideal candidate material for aircraft main bearing components, titanium matrix composites have been successfully used in turbine engine blades, integral blade rings, disks, shafts, casings, transmission rods and other components. At present, the relevant frontier research carried out in China includes the preparation of inertial navigation platform components of rocket and missile guidance systems with aluminum matrix composites and the preparation of aerospace pipe joint components with magnesium matrix composites.

Compared with resin matrix and metal matrix composites, ceramic matrix composites have the characteristics of stable ablation resistance, corrosion resistance and strength and toughness. They are the best choice for some key components of spacecraft. For example, when the flight speed of a hypersonic missile is greater than Mach 8, the instantaneous temperature of the nose cone will reach more than 1000 ℃. In such an extreme environment, the missile radome is required to have the functions of bearing and wave transmission, and the ultra-high temperature ceramic matrix composite becomes the only radome material. China has always been in the forefront of the world in the R & D and application of ceramic matrix composites. The representative is that the C / SiC composite nozzle series developed by Northwest University of technology for liquid rocket engine has successfully passed the examination. Shanghai Silicate Research Institute has developed carbon fiber toughened ceramic matrix composites, which have been used in missile end caps and satellite antenna window frames. In view of the shortcomings in the application of ceramic matrix composites in China, the research focuses include: developing high-quality matrix and reinforcement materials to improve the thermodynamic properties of products; Determine ceramics

To improve the fatigue performance of matrix composites to solve the aging problem caused by long-term service of products; Overcome the connection problem between ceramic matrix composites and heterogeneous materials, so as to broaden the application field of products.

② Lightweight and high-strength metal materials

At present, the metal materials involved in the missile structure subsystem mainly include high-temperature titanium alloy, aluminum lithium alloy and intermetallic compounds.

In terms of high temperature titanium alloy, titanium alloy, as a material with the characteristics of high specific strength, high specific stiffness, corrosion resistance, good bonding performance, high temperature resistance and creep resistance, is widely used in aerospace and other national defense fields. In view of the aerodynamic thermal problems caused by the pursuit of high-speed and miniaturization of missiles, higher requirements are put forward for the heat resistance of main structural materials such as titanium alloy. Therefore, high-temperature titanium alloy has become a key research direction. At present, high temperature titanium alloy is mainly used in missile cabin shell, rudder surface and wing surface. Most of the high-temperature titanium alloys independently developed in China are used at 550-650 ℃. TA12 (ti55), ti633g and Ti53311S are three representative domestic 550 ℃ high temperature titanium alloys. Ta12a alloy, jointly developed by Institute of metals, Chinese Academy of Sciences, BaoTi group and Beijing Institute of aeronautical materials, has been successfully applied to the afterburner cylinder of domestic advanced aeroengine and the body structure of cruise missile. At present, the research of high temperature titanium alloy focuses on its fatigue characteristics.

In terms of Al Li alloy, as the most rapidly developing lightweight material in aerospace materials, Al Li alloy is characterized by low density, high elastic modulus, high specific strength and specific stiffness. Lithium is the lightest metal and its solubility with aluminum is very high. Aluminum lithium alloy instead of conventional aluminum alloy can reduce the weight of structural parts by 10% - 15%, increase the elastic modulus by 6% and increase the stiffness by 15% - 20%. Compared with advanced composites, Al Li alloy has better compressive strength, lightning protection and low cost. At present, China has the production capacity of the third generation aluminum lithium alloy 2195, which can basically meet the material requirements of aerospace. At present, the focus of research is to develop new aluminum lithium alloys with high strength and high damage tolerance, and solve the problems of sheet metal forming and heat treatment of complex structural parts.

In terms of intermetallic compounds, their properties are between metals and ceramics. They have the characteristics of high temperature resistance, corrosion resistance, oxidation resistance and high strength. They are a new type of structural materials and structural coating materials. There are many kinds of intermetallic compounds. Ti Al and Ni Al intermetallic compounds are mainly used in the field of aerospace. At present, China's aerospace industry is trying to use Ti2AlNb alloy to replace Ni based superalloy to make engine hot end parts.

③ Advanced technology

At present, the advanced technology used in the missile structure subsystem mainly includes near no allowance forming technology, ultra precision machining technology, 3D printing technology and intelligent manufacturing technology.

In terms of near no allowance forming technology, it refers to the forming technology that parts can be used as structural parts without or with little processing after forming. Because of its unique advantages in reducing the weight of aircraft and the integration of complex parts, it has become a key technology for the forming of thin-walled parts with complex structure in the field of aerospace. At present, the more mature near residue free forming technologies include superplastic forming (SPF) / diffusion bonding (DB), investment casting and so on. In terms of SPF / DB technology, China has developed for more than 40 years, and great progress has been made in basic research and application. In terms of investment casting, China has formed a complete casting system, but the key equipment used in the domestic investment casting production line still depends on imports, and most of them are the products of western countries in the 1980s. Therefore, China's investment casting technology lags behind the West for about 30 years. Therefore, the development of investment casting equipment with long life and high reliability is the key development trend.

In terms of 3D printing technology and intelligent manufacturing technology, 3D printing for missile manufacturing can effectively reduce costs and improve efficiency. Raytheon has used 3D printing technology to manufacture 80% of missile components; ATK successfully tested the 3D printed hypersonic engine combustion chamber; The U.S. Navy's trident-2 D5 submarine launched missile tested the missile components with 3D printing for the first time in 2016. At the same time, intelligent manufacturing also has a significant impact on missile production and manufacturing. At present, the US missile defense agency has launched the "digital Propeller Factory" project to support the digital chemical plant environment from design to production; Loma's new generation of digital manufacturing system has been applied to missile production; Raytheon company uses the automatic guided vehicle to realize the automatic handling of missiles and parts, and uses the six axis robot to complete the assembly of the optical system of the missile seeker.

4.2.2 guidance control system and related optoelectronic components (optoelectronic components)

Guidance and control system is the key for missile to hit the target accurately. With the rapid development of information technology and the wide demand for precision guided weapons in the battlefield, guidance and control technology has made great progress. At present, the key technologies of missile guidance and control mode at home and abroad can be divided into five technical branches: inertial guidance control, radar guidance control, multi-mode composite guidance control, photoelectric guidance control and cooperative guidance control. The specific technologies involved in each technical branch are shown in Figure 29

In the guidance and control system, the guidance system mainly relies on guidance equipment, and the parts involved include all kinds of seeker and inertial instruments. It is mainly developed by enterprises, institutions and private enterprises affiliated to central military enterprises, while the aircraft control system mainly relies on the flight state parameters measured by the guidance system for settlement, mainly based on algorithm programs, It is mainly designed by enterprises and institutions affiliated to military central enterprises.

Based on the number of patents related to missile guidance technology, the development of missile guidance and control technology has experienced the earliest inertial guidance, followed by SAR guidance, infrared imaging guidance and laser three-dimensional imaging guidance. In recent years, there has been the development process of target fusion identification, cooperative networking, quantum imaging radar guidance and active passive radar composite guidance. Among them, infrared imaging guidance and laser three-dimensional imaging guidance are research hotspots, and the control and guidance law technology of cooperative guidance is also one of the future development directions.

We focus on the detailed technical development and investment opportunity analysis of inertial guidance and control and photoelectric guidance and control in the guidance and control industry, especially the guidance system (for radar guidance and control, see the report in-depth report of AVIC securities military industry: electronic detection system, the "golden eye" in the information age).

① Inertial guidance control

Inertial navigation system (INS) is an autonomous navigation system that does not rely on external information or radiate energy to the outside. It is a navigation parameter calculation system with gyroscope and accelerometer as sensitive devices. The system establishes the navigation coordinate system according to the output of gyroscope, and calculates the speed and position of carrier in the navigation coordinate system according to the output of accelerometer.

Compared with other guidance and control technology directions, inertial guidance and control has the characteristics of autonomous concealment, real-time continuity, all-weather, all-time and space-time, and all regional environment sensitivity. It has become a general core equipment for navigation, positioning, guidance control, aiming and orientation and attitude stability of space-based, air-based, sea based and land-based weapons and equipment. In the inertial guidance and control system, The core components are inertial instruments represented by gyroscopes and accelerometers. At present, inertial instruments have the following development trends:

(1) Emerging atomic spin gyroscope, nuclear magnetic resonance gyroscope, interference principle prototype gyroscope, crystal optical gyroscope and high-end inertial sensing technology have seen high-precision applications. MEMS technology, as the basic support technology of high-precision and high dynamic organic fusion of atomic inertial system and its effective application, is also the key development field.

(2) Optical inertial sensing technology has the tendency to replace the traditional mechanical inertial gyro sensing technology because of its advantages of cost, life, accuracy and reliability. The use of three-axis rotation modulation can effectively reduce the constant error and improve the application accuracy of optical strapdown inertial system. The traditional high-precision mechanical three floating gyroscope and electrostatic superconducting gyroscope inertial instrument still have unique needs in strategic and special target tasks. The development direction is high precision, long-term stability, in-depth basic micro quantification, comprehensive performance improvement and so on. At the same time, using three-axis rotation modulation and electric locking to realize platform strapdown hybrid navigation guidance with different mission profiles can also improve the application performance.

(3) MEMS solid vibration gyroscope is expected to achieve high precision limit and high-end applications, and become the development trend of high-end MEMS inertial sensors in the future. The multi-source composite and multi array inertial micro system is also helpful to realize the independent navigation independent of GPS, reduce the cost, improve the accuracy, and promote the process of intelligent guidance of tactical weapons.

(4) The emergence of new functional materials, the development of emerging precision and ultra precision manufacturing, the integration of man-machine intelligent micro stress and micro quantitative standards and specifications have promoted the continuous progress and development of inertial sensors with high precision, high reliability, long life, fast response, small weight, low cost, large dynamic resistance to high overload and adaptability to diverse, complex and harsh environments, So as to meet the needs of intelligent navigation control.

(5) Dynamic, overload, electromagnetic, temperature and other extreme conditions, multi factor composite simulation, comprehensive incentive test, delivery and evaluation, and strengthening the research on test theory, mechanism, method and equipment technology have become the bottleneck and urgent problems restricting the development of inertial technology.

② Photoelectric guidance control

As shown in Figure 29, the current photoelectric guidance and control mainly consists of infrared imaging guidance, laser three-dimensional imaging guidance and multi hyperspectral imaging guidance. In the photoelectric guidance and control, the seeker is a core component with the complex functions of autonomous search, identification and tracking of targets, which can continuously input target information and give guidance and control instructions. It can ensure that the missile weapon system can continuously track the target and realize the accurate attack on the target.

In infrared guidance and control, infrared seeker can use infrared detector to identify, capture and track target radiation energy to realize automatic homing. Because infrared seeker has great advantages in accuracy, anti-interference, concealment and cost-effectiveness, it has become one of the target sensitive devices widely used in missiles. In recent years, with the in-depth development of artificial intelligence technologies such as image recognition and solar standard tracking based on machine learning, as well as optoelectronic technology, computer technology and network information technology, infrared seeker has been greatly improved in imaging guidance. In order to better adapt to the future information EW environment, At present, the technical development direction of infrared seeker is to have stronger infrared detection ability, faster image real-time processing speed and sharper electronic perception ability. Among them, infrared imaging visitation technology, automatic target recognition technology and image real-time processing technology are the key development directions of various countries to improve the intelligence level and anti-interference ability of missile weapon system at this stage. In addition, with the joint operation network of sea, land, air and space, all kinds of precision guided weapons such as missiles need refrigeration and uncooled advanced infrared sensors. The common requirements include larger array, smaller pixel spacing, higher sensitivity and lower power consumption. At the same time, it is imperative to reduce the cost of infrared detectors, Therefore, the future market of uncooled infrared detector will be broader.

In the laser three-dimensional imaging guidance, the active imaging guidance mode is mainly adopted. The target is imaged through laser scanning, and then matched with the laser imaging characteristics of the target to be hit preset in the seeker, so as to automatically identify and track the target. The unique working mechanism of active laser seeker makes it have high angle, distance and velocity resolution, strong anti-interference ability, large amount of information and high sensitivity. However, it is limited by the development level of hardware and is not widely used in the practical application of weapons and equipment. Its key technologies mainly include high-sensitivity detection and reception, target imaging recognition, etc. at the same time, non scanning imaging technology can also solve the problems of low frame rate, small field of view and large volume of traditional scanning imaging. Its research focus is APD array, pin array photodiode detector and integrated signal processor, as well as the use of other mature array imaging devices, A new working system is adopted to realize non scanning 3D imaging. In addition, in the future application of laser detection devices in laser seeker, there are high requirements for the integration of devices and technical units. The integration of laser light source, detection unit and signal processing unit is also an important development trend.

Multi hyperspectral imaging guidance is mainly used in the field of anti stealth. Multi band hyperspectral detection is used to obtain more multi-dimensional information of targets to achieve target recognition. At the same time, it is also conducive to distinguish targets and decoys and improve the guidance anti-jamming level. At present, this guidance has been applied to the field of new generation air-to-air missiles at home and abroad, The core technology of multi hyperspectral imaging guidance is multi-sensor information fusion. The development trend is to adopt high-speed microprocessor and parallel processing technology in hardware and develop more effective feature level and decision-making level algorithms in software.

4.2.3 power system

Missile power system is a system that provides missile flight power. The power system is mainly composed of engine and propellant, in which propulsion is energy and engine is energy conversion device. This section will focus on the analysis of the technical development trend of the engine. At present, the missile engine can be mainly divided into large-scale solid rocket motor applied to ballistic missile, small and medium-sized solid rocket motor applied to tactical missile, aspirated engine (including turbine engine, ramjet, etc.), new system combined engine (TBCC, RBCC), etc.

① Large solid rocket motor

The application fields of large-scale solid rocket motor mainly include ballistic missiles and launch vehicles, and the technical development has commonality. In this section, the technical development trend of large-scale solid rocket motor for launch vehicles will be analyzed as the main body. The conclusions obtained are also reference for the technical development trend of large-scale solid rocket motor for missiles.

Large solid rocket motor is not only the preferred power of the booster stage of large / heavy launch vehicle, but also the main power unit of solid launch vehicle. Its development has been concerned by major Aerospace powers in the world. An overview of the development history of high thrust solid rocket motors by major Aerospace powers in the world, the development trends include: the direct use of solid rocket motors as core stage power of large launch vehicles has attracted the attention of all countries; The development trend of integral solid motor to replace the segmented solid motor with 100 ton charge is obvious; The application of composite structural parts in large solid rocket motors is increasing. As for the technical development of large-scale solid rocket motors in China, although China has made good progress in large-scale solid rocket motors, there is still a certain gap compared with the current situation that the United States, Europe and India have realized the engineering application of large-scale solid rocket motors with a diameter of 3M. The most advanced solid motor that has been successfully tested in China is not as good as the S-200 booster in India in terms of outer diameter, length and overall quality. Therefore, China still needs to tackle key technical problems in three aspects: charging technology, composite shell technology and nozzle technology.

In terms of charging technology, the technical goal is to realize innovative charging technology and large tonnage charging. The specific technical development path includes starting with equipment, such as developing continuous charge technology and establishing continuous charge production line; Or start with the process, learn from the experience of segmented charging, and innovate the charging form on the basis of existing equipment.

In terms of composite shell technology, the technical goal is to realize large-diameter composite shell technology and large-size shell winding. The specific key technology includes the development of fiber-reinforced composites with the advantages of high specific strength, high specific modulus and designability of material properties.

In terms of nozzle technology, the technical goal is to use long-time and large flow nozzle technology to realize large-scale nozzle manufacturing. The specific key technologies include the forming technology of large-size throat lining of large-scale solid rocket motor nozzle; Key technologies of flexible swing nozzle.

② Small and medium-sized solid rocket motor

In tactical missiles, small and medium-sized solid rocket motor is one of the main power devices of tactical missile flight. Its mass and size can account for 50% - 80% of the mass and size of missiles. It is the key technical basis for missile weapons to realize medium and long-range air defense, anti missile and precision attack. Its performance is directly related to the operational efficiency and deterrence of missile weapons. At present, the development of air defense and anti missile, long-range precision attack and future intelligent missile has higher and higher requirements for the propellant energy, mass ratio and regulation ability of solid motor, but the service environment of solid motor is more and more severe, and the demand for low vulnerability and environmental adaptability of solid motor is becoming more and more urgent, which puts forward higher requirements for the development of solid motor. At present, the development of solid rocket motor can be divided into four directions: high energy, light weight, controllability and low vulnerability.

In terms of high energy, the energy level of solid rocket motor still needs to be improved. The key technologies to realize high energy of solid rocket motor include: propellant adopts new high-energy or ultra-high-energy materials; Innovating the molding process and introducing nano energetic materials; High pressure engine technology based on high specific strength shell material and ablation resistant nozzle material; The performance calculation model of solid motor under high pressure is established.

In terms of light weight, it is reflected in the energy management ability based on light weight and high efficiency. The key technical approaches include: integrated design and research of engine combustion chamber and head or nozzle and manufacturing technology; The key technology of solid motor winding with charge; Engineering application of high strength carbon fiber and development of new shell materials; Flexible pulse isolation device (soft compartment) for multi pulse solid motor.

In terms of controllability, the controllability of solid rocket motor is developing from open-loop control to closed-loop control, from on-off control to continuous adjustable control, and the energy management mode is also developing from preset to follow-up control, towards high precision and fast response. The specific technical approaches include: high power density driving device and high-precision control algorithm; Carry out research on multiple start and stop solid motor; Optimization design of charge structure, development of throat regulating device, development of high pressure index solid propellant, etc. Multiple ignition technology of multi pulse engine.

In terms of low vulnerability, it is reflected in the development of low vulnerability technology of solid motor from component level to whole machine level. The key technologies include the effective integration of component level low vulnerability implementation approaches such as insensitive solid propellant and composite shell, and the research on whole machine level low vulnerability of solid motor; Study on the size effect of solid charge and the interaction between motor components; Research on instability mechanism and stability expansion technology at the whole engine level; Through the combination of real-time environmental hazard perception and active stability expansion, an active and safe solid motor is developed.

In addition, in order to support the intellectualization of tactical missiles, solid motors need to be further developed in intelligent controllability, optimal trajectory, high safety, energy self-assembly, state perception, intelligent manufacturing, maintenance free and so on.

At present, Russia and the United States have realized the service of tactical missile weapons and equipment in terms of controllability and low vulnerability, and are at the forefront of the development of small and medium-sized solid motors. Although relevant domestic technologies are becoming more and more mature, there is still a certain gap compared with Russia and the United States, which needs to be broken through one by one

Key technologies such as agent feeding and thermal protection raw materials, new charging process, adjustable gas valve, pressure closed-loop control and effective stability expansion accelerate the process of engineering and provide technical support for the leapfrog development of tactical missiles in China.

③ Aspirated engine

Missile aspirated engines can be divided into two categories: turbojet or turbofan engines (collectively referred to as turboengines) and ramjet engines used in subsonic missiles.

In terms of turbine engines, small turbojet and turbofan engines can provide ideal cruise power for high subsonic, medium and long-range missiles, which is the focus of competition among military powers. Missile turbine engine has the characteristics of low cost, short service life, small size, high speed, low boost ratio, large volumetric heat intensity, various starting and ignition modes. It has been widely used in cruise, anti-ship, air to ground and other strategic and tactical missiles. For this kind of traditional turbojet and turbofan engine, how to further reduce cost, reduce fuel consumption and simplify structure on the premise of meeting the performance requirements will still be an important development direction in the future. On the other hand, the current turbojet and turbofan propulsion technology has become more and more perfect after decades of development. Under the constraints of system structure and material temperature resistance, it is very difficult to greatly improve the performance. The new power units represented by propeller fan engine and pulse detonation turbine engine have potential advantages in cycle efficiency, fuel consumption or system structure. If they can break through the existing technical bottleneck, they are expected to replace turbojet and turbofan engine and become the cruise power of missiles in the future.

In terms of ramjet, because the missile with ramjet can realize the whole process dynamic cruise, it has the unique advantages of fast response, strong penetration ability, no excessive speed loss caused by ballistic maneuver and high terminal speed. It is one of the subversive development directions of aircraft in the future. Among them, supersonic combustion ramjet (scramjet for short) is considered to be the best power device to realize the hypersonic flight of aircraft in the atmosphere. Because of its good economy and simple structure, it has become one of the research focuses in the field of aerospace in the 21st century. China has started the research on scramjet since the middle of 1980-1990. Since the late 1990s, with the investment of a large amount of national funds, the ground test facilities of scramjet have been gradually improved, the research on scramjet has been further deepened and refined, a large number of research results have emerged, and some key technologies of scramjet have been broken through. However, compared with the research status of the United States, Britain, Russia, France, Australia and Japan, China's hypersonic propulsion technology still has a big gap in research means, equipment construction, financial investment and talent training. It still needs to focus on the design of propulsion system, measurement technology and flight test, material and structure Strengthen research and seek breakthroughs in key technologies such as flight control,

It paves the way for the wide application of scramjet. Overall, the key technology of scramjet technology development still lies in the research of related basic science problems. Including fire, flame propagation and flame stability, detailed chemical reaction mechanism of hydrocarbon fuel and wall thermal protection.

4.2.4} missile borne power supply

Missile power supply system is an important part of the missile and the guarantee for the normal operation of the missile. Missile power supply system is usually composed of primary power supply, secondary power supply and power control circuit. It has the characteristics of fast response time, high power density, high reliability, harsh working environment, small volume, light weight and storage resistance.

At present, with the continuous improvement of the level of thermal battery and power electronic devices, it provides an effective guarantee for the improvement of the performance of missile power supply system. The improvement of the performance of the power supply system is mainly reflected in the aspects of high power, small volume, small mass, fast starting response time, high efficiency and low noise. At the same time, with the continuous enhancement of the function of the power supply system, especially the ignition control function of initiating explosive devices, it has a vital impact on the safety of missiles. Therefore, the power supply system needs to have self inspection function. It is difficult to realize using conventional analog circuit, which will cause the complexity of interface and circuit and reduce the reliability. The future missile power supply system will adopt intelligent digital system such as DSP to realize self inspection of the power supply system and ensure the safety and reliability of the power supply system.

Overall, with the continuous development of missile technology and the continuous improvement of demand, the missile power supply system will develop in the direction of digitization, intelligence, miniaturization and multi-function.

5. Analysis of investment opportunities in missile industry

Based on the above analysis, we have the following judgments and suggestions on missile industry investment:

(1) novel coronavirus pneumonia will be exacerbated by the spread of the new global crown pneumonia epidemic in the context of the current international situation. The missile industry will maintain stable and rapid growth in terms of domestic demand or export in two aspects. The growth will also be transmitted to the middle and upper reaches of the missile industry chain and realized to the performance of relevant enterprises.

(2) At present, there are few investment targets in the R & D, integration and manufacturing of complete missile. Private listed companies include Gaode infrared and so on. The main reason for the small number of targets is that the main participants in the missile industry, aerospace science and industry group and Aerospace Science and technology group have a low degree of asset securitization in missile related scientific research institutes and factories. At the same time, as a central military enterprise with a long history, China's core technologies for missile R & D, integration and manufacturing are basically deposited in the relevant units of aerospace central enterprises, Missile complete units generally belong to the highest level (first level) confidentiality enterprises in national defense and military industry, with high qualification barriers and technical barriers. Therefore, it is suggested to focus on the investment opportunities generated by the asset securitization process of relevant high-quality enterprises and institutions affiliated to China Aerospace Science and technology or aerospace science and industry group.

(3) Among all kinds of tactical missiles, the cost of guidance and control system (and its related parts) accounts for a high proportion of the overall cost of the missile, with high added value, and involves the most market targets. Listed companies include Gaode infrared, Dali technology, Xinguang optoelectronics and Hongxiang Co., Ltd. Among them, we should focus on the enterprise projects proposed in section, which are in line with the current technology development trend in inertial devices and photoelectric guidance equipment, have a stable supply relationship with relevant central aerospace enterprises, and can effectively solve the core technologies related to the technical pain points faced by the current missile industry.

(4) There are many targets of Listed Companies in missile structure and power supply subsystem industry. Among them, the target of missile body structure is mainly in the field of raw materials for missile body structure. Listed companies include Guangwei composite materials and Zhongjian technology. It is suggested to focus on the target of having core technologies related to the development trend of advanced missile materials mentioned in section; Listed companies in the missile borne power industry include aerospace Changfeng and xinleineng. It is suggested to pay attention to the objectives of relevant items with close, stable supply relationship and good cost control with relevant Aerospace central enterprises.

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