The Internet of things is an intelligent service system that connects things, people, systems and information resources through sensing devices and according to agreed protocols to process and respond to the information of the physical and virtual world.Wireless communication module is an indispensable bridge to connect the Internet of things。 According to GMSA, the number of Internet of things connections in China will double to 8 billion in 2025 compared with 2020, showing an explosive growth trend. Every time a wireless Internet of things connection is added, at least one wireless module is added. Therefore, the module, as the hardware basis for connecting everything, is irreplaceable. It is an industrial link with high certainty to benefit from the outbreak of connection number.
Internet of things industry chain diagram: wireless communication module is the core of Internet of things connection
Source: Internet of things think tank, ICT Institute, CITIC Securities Research Department
According to the communication protocol supported by baseband chip, the wireless module is divided into positioning module and communication module. The positioning module includes GNSS and GPS module, and the communication module is divided into non cellular module and cellular module. Non cellular modules mainly include local wireless communication modules such as WiFi and Bluetooth and unauthorized wide area wireless communication modules such as Lora and sigfox; Cellular modules include 2G / 3G / 4G and 5g. Cellular communication modules are considered to be the main driving force driving the rapid growth of communication module shipments in the future because of their wider application fields and greater potential.
In addition, there are many downstream application fields of communication module. According to the requirements for module speed and power consumption, it can be divided into four scenarios: passive IOT, narrowband IOT, medium and low-speed IOT and high-speed IOT, including wireless payment, Internet of vehicles, smart city, industrial application, wireless gateway, smart security, smart energy, etc.
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With the continuous increase of industrial policy: China has issued more than 20 policies to support the development of the Internet of things industry; Since 2017, the three major operators have also started subsidies to module manufacturers to reduce module costs.
Communication technology upgrade iteration:At the technical level, the Internet of things connection technology has been continuously enriched and developed to fully meet the different requirements of downstream scenarios for speed and power consumption. We judge that in the future, the mobile Internet of things will evolve along the dual path of "2G / 3G is gradually replaced by lpwa" and "ultra-high speed 4G is replaced by 5g", and finally form a triangular pattern of "NB IOT 4G 5g". At the downstream application level, the demand for mobile Internet, automotive Internet, industrial Internet and smart energy accelerated, accelerating the increase of shipments.
The global IOT module industry will usher in the stage of "simultaneous rise in volume and price", with a market space of 100 billion yuan.In 2020, the global shipment of cellular communication modules reached 265 million pieces, corresponding to a market scale of 21.38 billion yuan. Based on various driving factors, continuous optimization of product structure and reasonable assumptions, it is estimated that the global shipment of Internet of things cellular communication modules will reach 975 million pieces in 2025, corresponding to a market scale of 96.5 billion yuan. Among them, it is estimated that the shipment of 5g cellular modules will reach 180 million pieces in 2025, accounting for 18.5% of the total shipment, corresponding to the market of 54.1 billion yuan; 4glte shipments reached 336 million pieces, accounting for 34.5%, corresponding to 30.2 billion yuan in the market; Lpwa modules dominated by NB lot shipped 410 million pieces, accounting for 42%, corresponding to 10.2 billion yuan in the market; 2G / 3G gradually withdrew from the network.
At the same time, the IOT module industry presents a competition pattern in which the world rises in the East and falls in the west, the domestic strong is always strong, and the double leading pattern has been determined. Compared with overseas manufacturers, domestic manufacturers have advantages in labor cost, industrial chain supporting conditions, delivery capacity and channel system, which are finally reflected in product competitiveness and cost performance. Over the past five years, the overall revenue CAGR of Chinese manufacturers has reached 44.3%, while that of overseas manufacturers is only - 3.6%. In 2020, China's top four manufacturers accounted for 60% of global shipments and 49% of global revenue, with an obvious trend of rising in the East and falling in the West.
In terms of domestic competition, China Mobile Communications and guanghetong have opened the gap with other domestic manufacturers in terms of income scale, R & D strength, profitability and the depth and breadth of scene coverage. The double leading pattern has been determined, and the strong is always strong.
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